If the Countdown Was Still 45 Songs - Week of Feb 15, 2025

If the countdown was still 45 songs, based off airplay and my own personal opinion.

Before we get to this week's fresh 45, let's say goodbye to the songs leaving the countdown:

• Charli XCX - Apple [#45] {26w} PK: 11
• Marshmello/Kane Brown - Miles On It [#39] {36w} PK: 7
• Crash Adams - Optimist [#37] {2w} PK: 37
• David Guetta/Alphaville/Ava Max - Forever Young [#11; 2nd time] {10w} PK: 11

Last week's #1 song: ROSÉ/Bruno Mars - APT. [5 weeks at #1]

45. Gracie Abrams - Close To You [-5] {34w} PK: 2

44. Knox - Pick Your Poison [-10] {2w} PK: 34

43. Sabrina Carpenter - Taste [-34] {25w} [5 weeks at #1]

42. Dasha - Austin [-1] {47w} PK: 6

41. Griff - last night's mascara [+1] {4w} PK: 34

40. Post Malone/Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help [-2] {40w} [3 weeks at #1]

39. Hozier - Too Sweet [-3] {46w} [6 weeks at #1]

38. Billie Eilish - WILDFLOWER [2nd Reentry] {8w} PK: 14

37. Lady Gaga - Disease [+6] {16w} PK: 4

36. Vella - All My Love [-3] {4w} PK: 25

35. The Weeknd/Playboi Carti - Timeless [-7] {5w} PK: 26

34. Hayes Warner - Oh! [-5] {4w} PK: 29

33. Damiano David - Born With A Broken Heart [-18] {16w} PK: 14

32. Benson Boone - Beautiful Things [+3] {46w} [2 weeks at #1]

31. Myles Smith - Stargazing [+1] {29w} PK: 4

30. Doechii - DENIAL IS A RIVER [Debut] {1w} PK: 30

29. Marshmello/Jonas Brothers - Slow Motion [-3] {3w} PK: 26

28. Kendrick Lamar - squabble up [+2] {2w} PK: 28

27. Tyla - PUSH 2 START [Debut] {1w} PK: 27

26. Megan Moroney - Am I Okay? [-3] {4w} PK: 23

25. LISA/Doja Cat/RAYE - Born Again [Debut] {1w} PK: 25

24. Teddy Swims - Guilty [+7] {3w} PK: 24

23. Tate McRae - Sports car [+4] {3w} PK: 23

22. Sexyy Red/Bruno Mars - Fat Juicy & Wet [+3] {2w} PK: 22

21. Lady Gaga - Abracadabra [+3] {2w} PK: 21

20. Addison Rae - Diet Pepsi [-2] {22w} PK: 18

19. The Weeknd - Cry For Me [+1] {2w} PK: 19

18. RAYE - Oscar Winning Tears. [+3] {4w} PK: 18

17. Kendrick Lamar/SZA - luther [+5] {11w} PK: 17

16. ROSÉ - toxic till the end [+28] {4w} PK: 16

15. Alex Warren/Joe Jonas - Burning Down [-3] {15w} PK: 12

14. LISA - Moonlit Floor [-1] {16w} PK: 9

13. Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody [+6] {16w} PK: 12

12. Gracie Abrams - I Love You, I'm Sorry [-2] {10w} PK: 10

11. Lola Young - Messy [+3] {5w} PK: 11

10. SZA - BMF [+6] {5w} PK: 10

9. Gigi Perez - Sailor Song [+8] {15w} PK: 9

8. Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER [-1] {37w} [3 weeks at #1]

7. Teddy Swims - Bad Dreams [+1] {9w} PK: 7

6. Gracie Abrams - That's So True [-1] {13w} PK: 4

5. Shaboozey - Good News [+1] {13w} PK: 5

4. Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem [=] {9w} PK: 3

3. Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile [=] {26w} [4 weeks at #1]

2. Chappell Roan - Pink Pony Club [=] {13w} PK: 2

1. ROSÉ/Bruno Mars - APT. [=] {17w} [6 weeks at #1]

Biggest Jump Of The Week: ROSÉ - toxic till the end [+28]

Biggest DRRRRRRROP!!! Of The Week: Sabrina Carpenter - Taste [-34]

5 Oldest Songs

1. Dasha - Austin {47w}
2. Tie between Hozier - Too Sweet and Benson Boone - Beautiful Things {46w}
3. Post Malone/Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help {40w}
4. Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER {37w}
5. Gracie Abrams - Close To You {34w}

If An AI Decided The Countdown - Week Of Feb 15, 2025

 

If an AI decided the countdown, based off airplay and the latest AI reasoning model.

Exits:

• Damiano David - Born With A Broken Heart [#15] {15w} PK: 14
• David Guetta/Alphaville/Ava Max - Forever Young [#11; 2nd time] {10w} PK: 11
• Sabrina Carpenter - Taste [#9] {24w} [5 weeks at #1]

Last week's #1 song: ROSÉ/Bruno Mars - APT. [5 weeks at #1]

30. Kendrick Lamar - squabble up [=] {2w} PK: 30

29. Hayes Warner - Oh! [=] {4w} PK: 29

28. The Weeknd/Playboi Carti - Timeless [=] {5w} PK: 26

27. Sexyy Red/Bruno Mars - Fat Juicy & Wet [-2] {2w} PK: 25

26. ROSÉ - toxic till the end [Debut] {1w} PK: 26

25. Megan Moroney - Am I Okay? [-2] {4w} PK: 23

24. Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody [-5] {16w} PK: 12

23. Myles Smith - Stargazing [2nd Reentry] {28w} PK: 4

22. Marshmello/Jonas Brothers - Slow Motion [+4] {3w} PK: 22

21. Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile [-18] {26w} [4 weeks at #1]

20. Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER [-13] {37w} [3 weeks at #1]

19. RAYE - Oscar Winning Tears. [+2] {4w} PK: 19

18. Doechii - DENIAL IS A RIVER [Debut] {1w} PK: 18

17. Gracie Abrams - I Love You, I'm Sorry [-7] {10w} PK: 10

16. Tate McRae - Sports car [+11] {3w} PK: 16

15. Addison Rae - Diet Pepsi [+3] {22w} PK: 15

14. Alex Warren/Joe Jonas - Burning Down [-2] {15w} PK: 12

13. Gigi Perez - Sailor Song [+4] {15w} PK: 11

12. Kendrick Lamar/SZA - luther [+10] {11w} PK: 12

11. The Weeknd - Cry For Me [+9] {2w} PK: 11

10. LISA - Moonlit Floor [+3] {16w} PK: 9

9. Lola Young - Messy [+5] {5w} PK: 9

8. Lady Gaga - Abracadabra [+16] {2w} PK: 8

7. SZA - BMF [+9] {5w} PK: 7

6. Shaboozey - Good News [=] {13w} PK: 6

5. Teddy Swims - Bad Dreams [+3] {9w} PK: 5

4. Gracie Abrams - That's So True [+1] {13w} PK: 4

3. Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem [+1] {9w} PK: 3

2. Chappell Roan - Pink Pony Club [=] {13w} PK: 2

1. ROSÉ/Bruno Mars - APT. [=] {17w} [6 weeks at #1]

Biggest Jump Of The Week: Lady Gaga - Abracadabra [+16]

Biggest DRRRRRRROP!!! Of The Week: Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile [-18]

AI's thoughts:

• Top 2 Stability: The top 2 of ROSÉ/Bruno Mars - APT. and Chappell Roan - Pink Pony Club are predicted to remain unchanged at #1 and #2 respectively, despite slight airplay decreases. They still maintain the highest airplay.
• SZA's "BMF" Jumps: "BMF" by SZA is predicted for a significant jump into the top 10, fueled by a strong airplay increase.
• Notable Climbs: RAYE's "Oscar Winning Tears." and Marshmello/Jonas Brothers' "Slow Motion" are predicted to climb, reflecting positive airplay momentum. SZA's "BMF", Lady Gaga's "Abracadabra" and The Weeknd's "Cry For Me" are the most significant upward moves among newer tracks.
• Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, and ROSÉ/Bruno Mars remain strong at the top, while some older hits are starting to decline. The influx of new music is creating a more competitive landscape in the chart.

My thoughts:

• There's no way DENIAL IS A RIVER will debut that high.
• Every week it always has some random old song reenter. This week it was Stargazing.
• The 3 exits will probably end up being correct since they were all off the survey.
• It might be a bit too early for Abracadabra to already be in the top 10.
• Die With A Smile and BIRDS OF A FEATHER wouldn't drop that hard. Hits 1 would just let them leave from the top 10.
• The top 5 looks pretty realistic.

Final prediction score:

• It got 3/5 exits correct 
• It got 2/5 debuts correct but not in the correct position, so it gets 2 half points for a total of 1 point
• It got the positions correct for Pink Pony Club and APT
• It did not get the correct biggest jump or biggest drop

Final score: 6/30 points. At least that's better than last week

Ethan's Top 10 - Tom Grennan (2) - Feb 14, 2025

 

https://www.crownnote.com/charts/zestpond/ethans-top-10-feb-14-2025

Exits:

• Kygo/OneRepublic - Chasing Paradise (#3) (1 week at #1)
• Tate McRae - Sports car (#4)
• Bowling for Soup - The Rock Show (#5)
• Porter Robinson - Cheerleader (#9; 2nd time) (1 week at #1)
• EMELINE - 99 boys (#10)

Last week's #1 song: Tom Grennan - Shadowboxing (1 week at #1)

10: Vella - All My Love (-8)

9: Sexyy Red/Bruno Mars - Fat Juicy & Wet (Debut)

8: Subtronics/Alison Wonderland - No One Does It Like (Debut)

Throwback Pick: Dua Lipa/Alison Wonderland - New Rules (Alison Wonderland Remix) (2017)

7: Yung Gravy/James Brown - SUPA GOOD!!! (Debut)

6: Lady Gaga - Abracadabra (Debut)

Throwback Pick: Dirty Heads/Train - Vacation (2021)

5: R3HAB/Mufasa & Hypeman/RANI - Believe (Shooting Stars) (+1)

4: JENNIE/Dominic Fike - Love Hangover (+4)

Throwback Pick: Camila Cabello/DaBaby - My Oh My (2020)

3: Robin Schulz/CYRIL/Sam Martin - World Gone Wild (+4)

2: Doechii - DENIAL IS A RIVER (Debut)

1: Tom Grennan - Shadowboxing (=) (2 weeks at #1)

Bubbling Under:

• Jack Harlow - Set You Free
• Alok/Kylie Minogue - last night i dreamt i fell in love
• ROSÉ - drinks or coffee

Last year's top 5: 

1. Jung Kook/USHER - Standing Next To You (+1) (1/4 weeks at #1)
2. Feature Records/Locksley/Cool Matt - Believe (+7)
3. Jason Derulo/Michael Bublé - Spicy Margarita (+8) (0/1 week at #1)
4. BOYS LIKE GIRLS - MIRACLE (+4) (0/1 week at #1)
5. Benson Boone - Beautiful Things (+2)

Last year's debuts: 

• Teddy Swims - The Door (#6)
• Conan Gray - Lonely Dancers (#7)
• The Veronicas - Here To Dance (#8)
• Jason Derulo/David Guetta - Down (#9)
• Breathe Carolina/Abi Flynn - Finally (#11)
• Flo Rida/Brian Kelley - Feels Right (I Love It) (#12)
• Glenn Morrison/Islove - Goodbye (#13)

Video - Maroon 5 US Pop Radio Fantasy Chart History

 

Chart history video for Maroon 5/Adam Levine/Kara's Flowers, if they weren't underrated, using chart data I made up.

Hits 1 Survey 2/8/25 - 2/22/25

 

Gigi Perez - Sailor Song

Teddy Swims - Guilty

ROSÉ/Bruno Mars - APT.

ROSÉ - toxic till the end

The Weeknd/Playboi Carti - Timeless

Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem

Gracie Abrams - I Love You, I'm Sorry

Myles Smith - Nice To Meet You

Chappell Roan - Pink Pony Club

Alex Warren/Joe Jonas - Burning Down

Megan Moroney - Am I Okay?

Vella - All My Love

Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody

Knox - Pick Your Poison

Marshmello/Jonas Brothers - Slow Motion

RAYE - Oscar Winning Tears.

Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile

LISA - Moonlit Floor

Kendrick Lamar/SZA - luther

Tate McRae - Sports car

The Marías - No One Noticed

Crash Adams - Optimist

Hayes Warner - Oh!

Teddy Swims - Bad Dreams

Shaboozey - Good News

Lola Young - Messy

SZA - BMF

Addison Rae - Diet Pepsi

Griff - last night's mascara

Gracie Abrams - That's So True

Kendrick Lamar - squabble up [NEW]

Lady Gaga - Abracadabra [NEW]

LISA/Doja Cat/RAYE - Born Again [NEW]

Tyla - PUSH 2 START [NEW]

The Weeknd - Cry For Me [NEW]

Doechii - DENIAL IS A RIVER [NEW]

Sexyy Red/Bruno Mars - Fat Juicy & Wet [NEW]

Koe Wetzel/Jessie Murph - High Road [NEW]

Off the survey:

Damiano David - Born With A Broken Heart

David Guetta/Alphaville/Ava Max - Forever Young

Sabrina Carpenter - Taste (it's about damn time!!!)